Decision points

A wisely planned long journey is not designed like a snake.  It's a flowchart with decision points, at each of which there are alternative routes based on certain scenarios.

For example, I would like to visit Iraqi Kurdistan; but I recognise that it may turn dangerous or may overstretch my budget.  I have budgeted for it but I have also identified a decision point at Dogubayazit, where I can choose to go south to Iraq, or north to Erzurum.  The latter course cuts nine days and $500 from my budget.

At Tashkent in Uzbekistan there is another decision point.  My plan is to go to China by way of Turkmenistan, Afghanistan, Tajikistan and Kyrgyzstan.  But there is alway the chance of being denied a transit visa for Turkmenistan.  In that case I can go directly from Uzbekistan to Afghanistan, fly to herat, then continue as planned.  The money saved from not going to Turkmenistan will pay for the flight.  Or Afghanistan may crumble into (worse) chaos, in which case I will also need to skip Turkmenistan and maybe Tajikistan (since their mutual border is often closed) and go directly to Kyrgyzstan.  The money and time saved can be used in countries later.

At Hohhot in China I have another decision point - north to Mongolia or continue east to Beijing.  I have budgeted for Mongolia but if money and/or Passport are too tight at Hohhot, I can save a page, a week and $500 by going to Beijing.

Sometimes there's no decent alternative.  Having travelled as far as Azerbaijan, I have to hope I can get a visa for Kazakhstan and I have to hope I can catch a "weekly" ferry across the Caspian.  If for any reason that falls through I have to hope I can get an Iranian visa, travel though Iran to Afghanistan, and resume my course from there.  This route offers only a mild saving in terms of time and expense and the only thing going for me is that I already have a previous, successfully used Iranian visa in my Passport.  Another option (if the issue is with the ferry, not the visa) is to try for a Russian transit visa and loop up around the north end of the Caspian then down the Volga to Kazahkstan.  This works only if the Abkhazian border is open.  It saves no money and is in fact a money pit because of the time, expense and paperwork required to get the Russian visa.  Again, my Passport already has a previously used Russian visa to speak for me.

No travel plan survives its execution - but with a little advance planning, it can sometimes be resuscitated.